Most of us were toasting the new year just after the stroke of midnight on January 1st without much thought to the real estate inventory. But it’s a great time to look forward to new listings. Inventory was at its lowest on January 1st, with many homes off the market for the holidays, but from now on we can expect to watch it grow.
Tomorrow is Broker’s Tour in Alamo and Danville: Thursday’s tour is intended to introduce new listings to the realtors in the marketplace, but it’s also used to give exposure to a new price. Tomorrow’s tour is light:
– 2 in Alamo, once price change and one “back on market” listing
– 9 in Danville
– 1 in Blackhawk
Year-end inventory in Alamo and other selected towns in the county looks like this:
Alamo – 62
Danville – 138
Blackhawk – 26
San Ramon – 126
Lafayette – 38
Orinda – 23
Pleasant Hill – 43
Walnut Creek – 124
Rossmoor – 114
Antioch – 197
And now that 2011 has come to a close, it’s interesting to compare the sales stats with 2010. In most of the towns in our county, the two years were very similar–Alamo was actually the town with the most disparity: sales were down 18% from 2010 (a total of 163 homes sold in 2011). The level of distressed sales remained about the same: 78% of the sales in 2010 were regular (not short sales, not REOs) and it was 77% in 2011.
In Danville, sales grew slightly from 2010 to 2011: up 4%. There were more distressed sales with the regular sales dropping from 76% in 2010 to 70% in 2011.
In Blackhawk, sales were down slightly: from 108 to 100 or down 7%. More of those were non-distressed: 74% were regular sales up from 68% in 2010.
In San Ramon, sales were up very slightly: from 988 to 1013 or 3%. The level of distressed sales was almost the same both years (59% regular sales in 2010; 57% in 2011).
In Walnut Creek, sales were up 9%, from 842 in 2010 to 921 in 2011. More of the sales were distressed: 69% in 2010 were regular sales, dropping to 58% in 2011.
And I always like to glance at Antioch–it’s not intended to be unfriendly, but they have had a tough time in this market, and it’s important to consider that their statistics are part of what we hear about when experts cite county-wide data. For Antioch, 2010 was very similar to 2011: 1788 units sold in 2010; 1761 in 2011. Only 28% of those sales in 2010 were regular sales, and that went down to 26% in 2011. Imagine a world where 3/4 of the volume is being sold as part of the foreclosure process.
Yet, Antioch has been recovering over the years–I first started monitoring the stats in Antioch in 2007, to make sense of the “Contra Costa sales information” I was hearing. It’s a big county, and to lump Antioch and Alamo together is like mixing mashed potatoes in with your banana bread: they are too different to be part of the same recipe.
In 2007, Antioch had over 1300 homes on the market: today they have fewer than 200. Their recovery is evident, and their prices have suffered dramatically, but it’s a healing process and they have led the charge.